Agricultural Policy Analysis and Food Security Implications in Nigeria

This study analyses key agricultural policy instruments in Nigeria and their implications for food security outcomes at national and household levels. Agricultural policy in Nigeria encompasses a broad range of instruments including input subsidies, import tariffs, export restrictions, public investment in irrigation and rural roads, and social protection programmes, each with complex and sometimes contradictory food security effects. Understanding the food security implications of agricultural policy is essential for evidence-based policy design. This study uses a policy analysis methodology, reviewing major agricultural policy changes in Nigeria from 2019 to 2024, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange unification, the Presidential Fertiliser Initiative, and the Agricultural Transformation Agenda. Policy simulation models are applied to estimate food price and production effects of major policy changes. Secondary data from NBS household surveys, CBN reports, and FAO GIEWS alerts are analysed. Findings reveal that subsidy removal and exchange rate unification produced significant food price inflation in the short term, disproportionately affecting poor urban households. Fertiliser subsidy programmes improve production incentives but create market distortions. The study concludes that Nigeria's agricultural policy mix lacks adequate food security safeguarding mechanisms. It recommends food security impact assessment as a mandatory component of all major agricultural policy changes.

Keywords: agricultural policy, food security, Nigeria, policy analysis, food prices.