An Agent-Based Model of Technology Adoption and Diffusion Under Climate Uncertainty in Northern Nigerian Farming Systems

Agent-based modelling provides a powerful computational approach for simulating the emergent dynamics of technology adoption and diffusion in heterogeneous farming populations facing climate uncertainty, capturing feedback loops and non-linear processes that are inaccessible to traditional reduced-form econometric methods. This study develops and validates an agent-based model of technology adoption and spatial diffusion under climate uncertainty, calibrated to farming systems in Kano, Jigawa, and Katsina States in Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone. The model represents 2,000 individual farmer agents with heterogeneous attributes including landholding size, social network position, risk aversion, and climate exposure profile. Agent decision rules are derived from empirical survey data and calibrated Bayesian belief updating mechanisms. Climate uncertainty is represented using a stochastic weather generator producing 100-year ensembles. Technology scenarios modelled include drought-tolerant sorghum varieties, precision irrigation, and climate information services. Model validation compares simulated adoption trajectories against historical survey data from 2018 to 2024. Scenario analysis explores alternative extension delivery mechanisms and subsidy structures as policy levers for accelerating diffusion. Results indicate that network-targeted extension strategies leveraging community opinion leaders reduce time to 50 percent adoption by an average of 3.8 years relative to random extension contact approaches. Climate uncertainty dampens adoption among highly risk-averse agents regardless of technology profitability. The study contributes an original validated agent-based modelling framework for technology diffusion analysis in Nigerian agricultural systems and demonstrates its utility for ex ante policy scenario evaluation. Keywords: agent-based model, technology adoption, climate uncertainty, diffusion dynamics, northern Nigeria