An Original Framework for Integrating Behavioural Operations Research Methods into Supply Chain Decision-Making in Nigeria

Conventional normative operations research models assume rational, self-interested decision makers whose choices conform to expected utility maximization, an assumption systematically violated in the real-world supply chain decisions of Nigerian managers operating under cognitive biases, social norms, relational pressures, and institutional constraints that standard models ignore. This dissertation develops an original framework for integrating behavioural operations research methods into supply chain decision-making in Nigeria, making theoretical contributions to both behavioural economics and supply chain management. A comprehensive synthesis of prospect theory, bounded rationality, social preference theory, and institutional economics grounds the development of a behaviourally enriched supply chain decision model. Original theoretical contributions include: an extended newsvendor model incorporating loss aversion and social comparison preferences calibrated to Nigerian trader behaviour; a behavioural supplier relationship model capturing gift exchange dynamics and relational contracting in informal supply chain tiers; and a formal model of overconfidence effects on inventory and procurement decisions in uncertain demand environments. The theoretical models are empirically validated through a multi-method research design combining incentivized experiments with 380 Nigerian traders and supply chain professionals, field data from 60 supply chain relationships across the South West and South East zones, and computational simulation. Results demonstrate that behaviourally informed supply chain coordination mechanisms, specifically contracts designed to account for loss aversion and reference point effects, outperform standard incentive contracts by 24 percent on supply chain efficiency metrics. The dissertation contributes an original theoretical and empirical foundation for behavioural supply chain management in Nigeria. Keywords: behavioural operations research, supply chain, prospect theory, bounded rationality, Nigeria