An Original Framework for Techno-Economic Analysis of Telecommunications Infrastructure Investment Under Regulatory Uncertainty in Nigeria

Telecommunications infrastructure investment decisions in Nigeria are made under significant regulatory uncertainty, including unpredictable spectrum policy changes, evolving right-of-way regulations, and variable enforcement of quality of service requirements, yet existing techno-economic analysis frameworks for telecommunications infrastructure assume stable regulatory environments and lack tools for quantifying regulatory risk. This doctoral study develops an original framework for techno-economic analysis of telecommunications infrastructure investment under regulatory uncertainty in Nigeria, integrating real options theory with stochastic regulatory process models to enable risk-adjusted investment valuation. An original stochastic model for Nigerian regulatory process dynamics is developed, parameterized using a fifteen-year historical database of NCC regulatory actions including spectrum fee changes, license condition modifications, and right-of-way policy revisions constructed from publicly available regulatory records. The real options framework models infrastructure investment decisions including timing flexibility, staged deployment, and technology choice under the derived regulatory uncertainty model. Original closed-form approximations for the option value of investment flexibility under the Nigerian regulatory process model are derived using perturbation methods applied to the Black-Scholes partial differential equation with regulatory shock terms. Case studies applying the framework to rural broadband investment, 5G small cell deployment, and fiber backbone extension decisions demonstrate that regulatory uncertainty discounts optimal investment volumes by between 18% and 34% relative to deterministic analysis, explaining the persistent infrastructure investment gap documented in NCC coverage data. The doctoral framework constitutes an original contribution to telecommunications investment theory incorporating developing economy regulatory risk structures. Keywords: techno-economic analysis, regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure investment, real options, Nigeria.