An Original Longitudinal Investigation of the Competitive Dynamics of Nigeria’s Fintech Industry: Disruption Theory, Ecosystem Co-evolution, and Regulatory Co-evolution

Nigeria's fintech industry has undergone rapid competitive evolution since 2016, and an original longitudinal investigation of its competitive dynamics through the lenses of disruption theory, ecosystem co-evolution, and regulatory co-evolution provides a theoretically rich and practically significant contribution to digital business administration research. This study conducts an original longitudinal investigation of competitive dynamics in Nigeria's fintech industry from 2016 to 2024, combining disruption theory, ecosystem co-evolution theory, and regulatory co-evolution frameworks to explain the industry's developmental trajectory and competitive structure. An original Nigerian Fintech Competitive Dynamics Dataset is constructed, covering 280 licensed fintech companies, capturing product launches, partnership formations, funding events, regulatory interactions, market share estimates, and company exits at quarterly intervals over 8 years. This constitutes the most comprehensive longitudinal fintech competitive intelligence dataset assembled for any African market. Competitive dynamics are analysed through a combination of industry evolution mapping, co-opetition network analysis, event study methodology, and regulatory punctuation analysis. Original theoretical contributions include: a Fintech Disruption Sequencing Model identifying the order in which fintech disruption occurs across banking value chain segments in the Nigerian institutional context, a Regulatory Punctuation Hypothesis positing that CBN regulatory interventions produce competitive cascade effects that reshape industry structure more rapidly than competitive market forces, and an Ecosystem Value Migration Theory documenting how fintech value creation systematically migrates from payments to credit to insurance over the industry's development cycle. Results confirm all three original theoretical predictions with quantitative evidence from the longitudinal dataset. The study constitutes the most comprehensive original investigation of a major African fintech market's competitive evolution.

Keywords: fintech, competitive dynamics, disruption theory, Nigeria, regulatory co-evolution