Analysing the Determinants of Export Survival Among Nigerian Non-Oil Firms: A Duration Analysis Approach

This study analyses the determinants of export survival, defined as the length of time a firm maintains a continuous export relationship with a given destination market, among Nigerian non-oil exporting firms, applying duration analysis methods that are new to the Nigerian trade literature. A substantial proportion of firms that begin exporting discontinue their export activity within two years, a phenomenon known as export survival failure, which undermines the contribution of new exporters to sustained non-oil export growth. Understanding the firm-level and market-level determinants of export survival is therefore critical for designing effective export promotion policy. The study constructs a longitudinal export spell dataset from matched Nigerian Customs Service transaction records and National Bureau of Statistics firm registry data, covering approximately 1,200 non-oil exporting firms across the period 2012 to 2022. Cox proportional hazard models and Weibull accelerated failure time models are applied to identify the determinants of export spell duration, with robustness checks addressing potential endogeneity in export market selection. The theoretical framework draws on the heterogeneous firms trade model, the sunk cost theory of market entry, and the export learning hypothesis. Firm-level determinants including productivity, size, prior export experience, and product diversification are examined alongside destination market characteristics including institutional distance, tariff levels, and market size. Findings are expected to reveal that productivity and product diversification are the strongest firm-level predictors of export spell survival. Policy recommendations focus on targeted support for export diversification and sustained market development assistance beyond the initial export entry phase. Keywords: export survival, duration analysis, non-oil exports, Nigeria, export determinants