Analysing the Impact of Planned Highway Development on Residential Property Values in Ekiti State

This study analyses the impact of a planned inter-state highway project on residential property values in Ekiti State, South West Nigeria, examining both anticipatory pre-announcement effects and post-announcement property market responses to the prospect of significantly improved road connectivity. Infrastructure impact analysis in real estate has been well studied internationally but its application to Nigerian highway development contexts remains limited, creating evidence gaps for infrastructure project appraisal and land value capture policy. A difference-in-differences event study design exploits the spatial variation in proximity to the planned highway corridor to estimate causal impacts on residential property values. Transaction data for 320 residential properties at varying distances from the planned highway are assembled from estate surveyor records covering the pre-announcement and post-announcement periods. Control properties located outside the highway influence zone serve as the comparison group. Hedonic regression with difference-in-differences specification estimates the highway's attributable price effect after controlling for structural property and neighbourhood variables. Supplementary interviews with 25 estate surveyors, 40 property owners in the corridor, and 10 Ekiti State Roads Authority officials provide qualitative context. Results show a statistically significant price premium of approximately 14 percent for properties within one kilometre of the planned highway, emerging approximately six months after official project announcement. The premium attenuates with distance and is strongest for properties benefiting from new commercial frontage creation. Recommendations include implementing a betterment levy on corridor properties to fund infrastructure construction. Keywords: highway infrastructure, property values, impact analysis, Ekiti State, difference-in-differences.