Analysis of Electoral Data to Study Voting Patterns in Rivers State

Electoral data analysis provides insights into voting behaviour, party competition, and democratic participation that can inform political science research and electoral administration. This study analysed Independent National Electoral Commission result sheets, voter registration data, and polling unit records from the 2019 and 2023 general elections across 23 Local Government Areas of Rivers State, South South Nigeria. Descriptive statistics, choropleth visualisation, and cluster analysis were applied to examine party vote share distribution, voter turnout variations, and polling unit-level result patterns. PDP dominated voting in all LGAs across both elections with mean vote shares above 70 percent. Turnout varied substantially, ranging from 21.3 percent in Ahoada East to 67.4 percent in Obio-Akpor. Rural LGAs consistently showed lower turnout than urban LGAs after controlling for registered voter counts. Cluster analysis grouped the 23 LGAs into three electoral profiles based on turnout, margin of victory, and registered voter density. Comparison of 2019 and 2023 results identified seven LGAs with statistically significant shifts in margin of victory, likely reflecting local political realignment. Abnormally high vote totals relative to registered voters in three polling units were flagged as data quality anomalies requiring verification. The study provides a data science framework for post-election pattern analysis in Nigerian federalism contexts. Recommendations include INEC adopting standardised digital result sheet formats, establishing electoral data archives, and engaging academic researchers in evidence-based electoral administration improvement.

Keywords: electoral data analysis, voting patterns, Rivers State, INEC, choropleth mapping