Analysis of the Effects of Flooding on Agricultural Output in Lokoja Local Government Area, Kogi State

Lokoja, situated at the confluence of the Niger and Benue rivers, experiences recurrent and often severe flooding that disrupts agricultural activities and threatens food production across affected Local Government Areas in Kogi State. This study analyses the effects of flooding on agricultural output in Lokoja Local Government Area, examining crop loss, post-flood soil quality changes, and farmer adaptive responses. A structured questionnaire was administered to 180 farming households who experienced flooding between 2020 and 2023, and the interviews captured information on crop types, area flooded, yield losses, and recovery timelines. Soil samples from flooded and non-flooded comparison plots were collected and analysed for pH, organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus content. Flood extent data from the National Emergency Management Agency were used to quantify the agricultural land area affected. Findings indicate that flooding events caused average yield losses of 62 percent in affected farms, with rice, cassava, and yam as the most heavily affected crops. Post-flood soil analyses reveal sedimentation-related improvements in organic matter in some areas but contamination with heavy metals associated with floodwater in areas adjacent to urban zones. Affected farmers employ post-flood soil amendment and varietal switching as short-term adaptive strategies. The study recommends flood-resistant crop variety promotion, establishment of community flood early warning systems, and development of post-flood recovery support programmes by the Kogi State Agricultural Development Programme. Keywords: flooding, agricultural output, Lokoja, Kogi State, crop loss.