Archaeogenomic Approaches to Understanding Population Continuity and Discontinuity in the Lower Niger Valley

Advances in ancient DNA analysis have transformed paleoanthropological research globally, offering unprecedented resolution on questions of population migration, admixture, and genetic continuity that were previously unanswerable from skeletal morphology alone. This study critically evaluates the potential and limitations of archaeogenomic approaches for understanding population history in the Lower Niger Valley, presenting a systematic assessment of skeletal sample inventory, preservation conditions, and analytical feasibility based on examination of curated collections at three Nigerian museums. The study does not present new genomic data but instead develops a rigorous framework for future archaeogenomic research in this region. Skeletal samples from seven sites spanning the Neolithic to the Iron Age were assessed for aDNA preservation potential using infrared spectroscopy and collagen yield testing as proxy indicators of nucleic acid survival. Preservation results are highly variable, with dense cortical bone elements from contexts below the water table at Igbo-Ukwu yielding the most promising preliminary collagen values, while poorly fired and surface-exposed elements from savanna sites show near-zero preservation potential. The study then models what population history questions are most productively addressed by the sample inventory that meets minimum preservation thresholds, identifying the Neolithic-to-Iron-Age transition and the relationship between the Nok Cultural Zone and the broader Bantu dispersal as the highest-priority questions for future analysis. Ethical dimensions including community consent and data sovereignty are discussed with reference to recent debates in the African ancient genomics literature. Keywords: archaeogenomics, ancient DNA, Lower Niger Valley, population history, skeletal preservation.