Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work in Nigeria: HR Strategy Implications of Automation on Employment Structures in Manufacturing and Financial Services

This study theorises and empirically investigates the HR strategy implications of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation-driven changes to employment structures in Nigeria's manufacturing and financial services sectors, contributing to the globally urgent but empirically underdeveloped question of AI's future-of-work consequences in African emerging economies. Nigeria's labour market context, characterised by high youth unemployment, predominantly manual and semi-skilled manufacturing employment, and a rapidly digitalising financial services sector, presents a distinctive configuration for examining automation impacts. The study employs a prospective mixed-methods design: Phase 1 applies occupational task-based automation risk analysis to a database of 650,000 Nigerian formal sector job profiles using an adapted Frey and Osborne automation probability algorithm calibrated for the Nigerian skill and task distribution. Phase 2 involves 45 expert interviews with CHROs, economists, AI technology implementers, and labour policy-makers, plus a Delphi method consensus-building exercise to develop future-of-work HRM scenarios. Labour Market Theory, Institutional Economics, and Strategic HRM Future-Orientation Theory provide the multi-disciplinary theoretical foundation. Phase 1 findings estimate that 46 percent of current formal manufacturing roles and 38 percent of financial services roles carry high automation probability within a 10-year horizon. Phase 2 Delphi findings identify four plausible HRM response scenarios ranging from augmentation-led to displacement-led futures. Original contributions include the Nigeria Automation Risk Index, a Future-Ready HRM Strategy Framework, and recommendations for government, industry, and universities on building adaptive human capital. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Future of Work, Automation, HRM Strategy, Nigeria.