Assessing the Spatial Dynamics of Internally Displaced Persons and Settlement Patterns in North East Nigeria

The Boko Haram insurgency and its aftermath have generated one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest internal displacement crises, with millions of persons displaced from their communities of origin and concentrated in camp and host community settings across the North East geopolitical zone in ways that profoundly reshape settlement patterns and urban systems. This study analyses the spatial dynamics of internally displaced person (IDP) distribution, settlement location choice, and integration outcomes in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States using geospatial data and multi-method primary data collection. Displacement data from the International Organization for Migration's Displacement Tracking Matrix (2020 to 2023) were geocoded and analysed to characterise IDP distribution patterns, distance from origin communities, and temporal trajectories. Satellite imagery from high-priority IDP camp and host community sites was used to monitor population concentration changes and informal settlement expansion. Structured surveys with 480 displaced households in six IDP camps and four host communities examined location choice determinants, integration experiences, and return intentions. Results indicate that proximity to pre-conflict origin area remains the primary determinant of IDP location choice, with 68 percent of surveyed IDPs located within 100 kilometres of their original community. Host community absorption has overtaken camp-based hosting as the dominant modality since 2021, with significant implications for urban service demand in Maiduguri and other secondary towns. Spatial analysis confirms that return movements are concentrated in areas where security conditions have most visibly improved, as evidenced by agricultural activity resumption detectable in Sentinel-2 NDVI time series. The study contributes a spatially-grounded framework for understanding IDP movement dynamics in conflict-affected Nigerian states. Keywords: internal displacement, North East Nigeria, Borno State, settlement patterns, conflict geography.