Assessing the Welfare Effects of the Nigeria Social Investment Programme on Agricultural Households

This study provides a rigorous assessment of the welfare effects of Nigeria's Social Investment Programme on agricultural households, examining consumption, food security, and human capital investment outcomes. The SIP, comprising the Conditional Cash Transfer, N-Anchor Borrowers, and N-Power components, constitutes Nigeria's largest social protection initiative and directly targets poor rural and agricultural households. Rigorous causal evidence on SIP effects on agricultural household welfare is limited, with most available assessments relying on implementation monitoring data rather than counterfactual impact evaluation. This study exploits the phased geographic rollout of the Conditional Cash Transfer component using a difference-in-differences design applied to three waves of the Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study panel data covering 2015 to 2022. Welfare outcomes include per capita consumption, food security scores, school enrolment, and healthcare utilisation. Agricultural-specific outcomes include input expenditure and technology adoption. Findings reveal significant positive effects on per capita consumption averaging 14 percent for CCT recipients, with the effect concentrated in the first two years of transfer receipt. Food security improvements are significant and sustained. Agricultural input expenditure increases modestly, suggesting a modest productive investment effect. The study concludes that the SIP CCT component generates meaningful welfare gains for agricultural households. It recommends scale-up and strengthening of the productive investment dimension of the programme.

Keywords: social investment programme, welfare effects, agricultural households, Nigeria, conditional cash transfer.