Assessment of Vegetable Import Substitution Opportunities Through Commercial Horticultural Expansion in Plateau State

Nigeria spends substantial foreign exchange annually on the importation of processed and fresh vegetables, including onion, carrot, and garlic, that can be produced domestically under the country's diverse agroecological conditions. Plateau State, with its temperate highland climate, is particularly well-positioned to substitute imported temperate vegetables through commercial horticultural expansion. This study assesses the import substitution potential of commercial horticultural expansion in Plateau State, focusing on carrot, garlic, and fresh onion. Production capacity, current and potential yield levels, value chain infrastructure, and investment requirements were evaluated using secondary data review, field surveys, and expert consultation with 25 commercial horticulture investors and state agribusiness officials. Results indicate that Plateau State currently meets less than 15 percent of its estimated production potential for carrot and garlic, with yield gaps primarily attributed to inadequate irrigation infrastructure, limited certified seed availability, and poor market linkages for processed vegetable products. The study estimates that full-scale investment in horticultural expansion could generate over N15 billion in annual revenue and substitute approximately 30 percent of current carrot and garlic import volumes. Recommendations include establishing a Plateau State Horticultural Investment Authority and targeted agribusiness support programs for commercial vegetable producers. Keywords: import substitution, commercial horticulture, Plateau State, carrot, garlic