Biochemical Determinants of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Pregnant Women in Borno State: A Prospective Cohort Analysis

Gestational diabetes mellitus is a significant obstetric complication with short-term and long-term metabolic consequences for both mother and child. This study prospectively examines biochemical determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnant women in Borno State, North East Nigeria. A prospective cohort design was employed, recruiting 200 pregnant women at their first antenatal visit and following them through to 28 weeks of gestation, at which point gestational diabetes was diagnosed using the WHO 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test. Biochemical measurements at recruitment included fasting insulin, glucose, lipid profile, adiponectin, and inflammatory markers (CRP and TNF-alpha). Insulin resistance was quantified by homeostatic model assessment. Predictive models using logistic regression and decision tree analysis identified early first-trimester biochemical predictors of subsequent gestational diabetes. The relationship between pre-pregnancy BMI, dietary glycaemic index, and biochemical risk markers was also assessed. The study addresses a significant gap in the North East Nigerian literature on gestational diabetes epidemiology and biochemical risk profiling. Findings will support the development of targeted antenatal screening protocols. Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus, insulin resistance, adiponectin, antenatal screening, Borno State.