Bioeconomic Modeling of Integrated Pest Management Adoption and its Implications for Pesticide Use Reduction in Nigerian Commercial Vegetable Systems

Integrated pest management (IPM) offers a scientifically grounded strategy for reducing pesticide dependence in Nigerian commercial vegetable production while maintaining economic viability and environmental sustainability. Despite three decades of IPM promotion in Nigeria, adoption remains limited and the bioeconomic conditions under which widespread adoption is profitable and environmentally beneficial have not been rigorously modeled. This dissertation develops a dynamic bioeconomic model of IPM adoption for tomato and cabbage production systems across North West and South West Nigeria, integrating pest population dynamics, crop damage functions, input cost structures, and farmer decision models. Model parameters were estimated from field experimental data collected over two cropping seasons in Kano and Ogun states. Scenarios simulating different IPM program structures, subsidy levels, market incentives, and extension service intensities were evaluated for their pesticide use reduction potential and economic outcomes using dynamic optimization techniques. Model outputs indicate that IPM adoption becomes economically dominant over calendar-based pesticide spraying when market premium for pesticide-reduced produce exceeds 15 percent and extension contact is at least bi-weekly. Full IPM adoption across the simulated system reduces total pesticide active ingredient use by 58 percent. The study provides a policy-relevant optimization framework for designing cost-effective IPM scaling programs in Nigerian vegetable systems. Keywords: bioeconomic modeling, integrated pest management, pesticide reduction, tomato, Nigeria