Bureaucratic Capacity and Public Service Reform Effectiveness in North West Nigeria

This study empirically analyses the role of bureaucratic capacity as a determinant of public service reform effectiveness across Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto States in Nigeria's North West geopolitical zone. Despite repeated reform cycles, public service performance in the region remains below national averages, raising fundamental questions about why reforms with seemingly sound designs frequently fail to generate anticipated improvements. A mixed-methods research design is employed, with quantitative data collected from 430 civil servants, reform implementation managers, and oversight officials, supplemented by qualitative key informant interviews with 30 senior officials. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and thematic analysis serve as analytical tools. The Bureaucratic Capacity Theory by Evans and Rauch and the Administrative Capacity Framework provide the theoretical lenses, distinguishing between meritocratic recruitment, internal cohesion, and technical expertise as dimensions of bureaucratic capacity. Findings establish that states with higher bureaucratic capacity scores, assessed on meritocracy, continuity of tenure, and technical competency, demonstrated significantly higher reform effectiveness scores. Political interference in personnel management is identified as the strongest negative predictor of reform outcomes across all three states. The study contributes an original empirical model of bureaucratic capacity and reform effectiveness to the comparative public administration literature on Northern Nigeria, and proposes a bureaucratic capacity diagnostic framework for use by state civil service commissions. Keywords: bureaucratic capacity, public service reform, North West Nigeria, meritocracy, civil service.