Childhood Obesity Trajectory and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors Among School-Age Children in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory: A Longitudinal Study

The rising prevalence of childhood obesity in Nigerian urban centres is generating a parallel increase in early-onset cardiometabolic risk, a trend with significant long-term implications for non-communicable disease burden. This two-year longitudinal cohort study characterises the obesity trajectory and associated cardiometabolic risk factors among school-age children in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, North Central Nigeria. A cohort of 380 children aged 6 to 12 years from six private and public primary schools was enrolled and followed annually. Outcome measures included BMI-for-age z-score, waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, fasting lipid profile, and blood pressure. Physical activity levels and dietary quality were assessed at each follow-up using validated paediatric instruments. Baseline overweight and obesity prevalence was 22.1% and 11.3%, respectively, rising to 25.4% and 14.7% at two-year follow-up. Waist circumference trajectory showed a steeper increase in obese children, with 38.4% meeting criteria for abdominal obesity at follow-up. Elevated fasting triglycerides were found in 24.6% of obese children, and 18.9% had borderline elevated fasting glucose. Systolic blood pressure above the 90th percentile was present in 19.7% of obese children. Reduced physical activity and high sugar-sweetened beverage consumption were independently associated with unfavourable trajectories. The study provides evidence for early cardiometabolic risk screening in Nigerian obese children and supports school-based obesity prevention programmes. Keywords: childhood obesity, cardiometabolic risk, longitudinal, Abuja, North Central Nigeria.