China-Nigeria Energy Relations and the Global Energy Transition: A Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis

The intersection of China-Nigeria energy relations with global decarbonisation imperatives creates a complex governance challenge that requires theoretical frameworks capable of capturing non-linear dynamics, emergent properties, and systemic interdependencies across national, regional, and global levels. This study applies complex adaptive systems theory to the analysis of China-Nigeria energy relations under conditions of global energy transition pressure, developing an original analytical model. The study employs a mixed-methods complexity research design including system dynamics modelling calibrated with twenty years of bilateral energy trade, investment, and policy data; agent-based simulation of energy transition scenarios under different Chinese investment trajectory assumptions; and qualitative theory-building through 40 expert interviews with Nigerian and Chinese energy sector actors and policy analysts. The original China-Nigeria Energy Transition Complex Model identifies four critical systemic tensions: the conflict between Chinese oil-backed loan servicing imperatives and Nigeria's renewable energy transition commitments; the misalignment between Chinese energy technology export interests and Nigeria's grid modernisation requirements; the governance gap between national energy policy ambitions and subnational implementation capacity; and the distributional conflict between oil-dependent Niger Delta communities and renewable energy development sites in other regions. The model generates scenario-specific policy recommendations and makes an original theoretical contribution to complex adaptive systems applications in Sino-African bilateral studies.

Keywords: China-Nigeria energy relations, complex adaptive systems, energy transition, system dynamics, bilateral studies