Climate Change, Catastrophe Insurance, and Sovereign Risk Transfer in Nigeria: A Comprehensive Policy Analysis

This dissertation develops a comprehensive policy analysis framework for climate change adaptation through catastrophe insurance and sovereign risk transfer instruments in Nigeria. Nigeria's exposure to climate-related catastrophes, including devastating annual flooding in the Niger Delta and Middle Belt, advancing desertification in the north, and coastal erosion in the south, is projected to intensify significantly over the 2025 to 2050 period under mainstream climate scenarios, generating growing sovereign fiscal exposure. The study integrates climate risk modeling, insurance economics, and public finance theory to analyze the cost-benefit efficiency of alternative risk financing architectures ranging from purely domestic mechanisms to fully internationalized sovereign catastrophe risk transfer. A stochastic risk model calibrated to Nigerian climate hazard data generates probabilistic loss estimates for a 50-year simulation horizon under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission pathways. Insurance pricing models assess the actuarial cost of sovereign coverage at different deductible and attachment point configurations. Fiscal impact analysis quantifies the ex-post versus ex-ante financing efficiency difference. The study evaluates Nigeria's potential participation in the African Risk Capacity (ARC) sovereign insurance pool and designs an original Nigeria Catastrophe Bond structure for international capital market risk transfer. Preliminary findings are expected to demonstrate substantial fiscal savings from pre-arranged catastrophe risk transfer relative to disaster relief financing. Keywords: Climate Change, Catastrophe Insurance, Sovereign Risk Transfer, Nigeria, Disaster Risk Finance.