Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity of Beach Tourism Destinations Along Nigeria’s Atlantic Coastline: A Mixed-Method Study

This study assesses the climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity of beach tourism destinations along Nigeria's Atlantic coastline, covering key sites in Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom states. Coastal tourism in Nigeria faces intensifying threats from sea level rise, coastal erosion, increased storm frequency, and salt water intrusion, yet no comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for Nigerian beach tourism has been developed. A mixed-method research design is adopted combining spatial analysis of satellite-derived coastal erosion data from 2000 to 2024 with questionnaire surveys of 340 beach tourism operators and 18 focus group discussions with coastal community stakeholders across seven states. The Destination Vulnerability Assessment Framework is adapted for the Nigerian coastal context to generate a composite vulnerability index across five dimensions including exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, governance resilience, and economic dependence. Findings reveal that 68 percent of sampled beach tourism sites have experienced measurable physical shoreline recession over the study period. Adaptive capacity is lowest among small-scale informal operators who constitute 74 percent of the beach tourism economy. State governments demonstrate inconsistent implementation of coastal zone management regulations, creating governance gaps that amplify physical vulnerability. The study develops a Nigerian Beach Tourism Climate Adaptation Index and proposes a differentiated adaptation roadmap for federal, state, and operator-level interventions. Theoretical contributions to the vulnerability literature in the small island developing states and coastal Africa context are articulated. Keywords: climate change vulnerability, beach tourism, coastal erosion, Nigeria, adaptive capacity