Comparative Analysis of Life Expectancy Differentials Between Urban and Rural Populations in Nigeria

This study conducts a comparative actuarial analysis of life expectancy differentials between urban and rural populations in Nigeria, using abridged life table construction methods applied to demographic data from the 2018 National Demographic and Health Survey. Urban-rural mortality differentials have direct implications for insurance pricing, pension liability estimation, and public health policy. In Nigeria, access to healthcare, sanitation, nutrition, and economic opportunity differs substantially between urban and rural settings, creating meaningful mortality gradients that are often ignored in actuarial practice. This study constructs separate urban and rural abridged life tables for Nigeria's six geopolitical zones using NDHS mortality estimates, supplemented by health facility utilization data from the Federal Ministry of Health. Urban and rural life expectancies at birth and at age 60 are compared across zones and decomposed by cause-of-death contribution where data permit. Findings reveal an average urban-rural life expectancy differential of 6.8 years at birth, with the largest gaps in the North West and North East zones. Communicable diseases and maternal mortality contribute disproportionately to rural excess mortality. Urban life expectancy at age 60 is 4.1 years higher than rural equivalents on average. The study concludes that actuarial practice in Nigeria must account for urban-rural mortality gradients to produce accurate pricing and liability estimates. It recommends that NAICOM facilitate development of separate urban and rural mortality tables for use in product pricing and reserve calculations.

Keywords: life expectancy, urban-rural differential, life tables, Nigeria, actuarial analysis.