Complex Systems Modelling of Energy Transition Pathways for Nigeria’s Industrial Sector

This dissertation develops a complex systems model of energy transition pathways for Nigeria's industrial sector, making original contributions to energy transition modelling methodology and to the empirical understanding of industrial decarbonisation trajectories in a major emerging economy with a distinctive energy system configuration. Nigeria's industrial sector energy transition presents a problem of exceptional complexity, involving interactions among policy choices, technology cost trajectories, gas infrastructure availability, renewable energy resource variability, industrial production growth dynamics, and institutional capacity constraints across a geographically diverse national industrial base spanning all six geopolitical zones. The research constructs a system dynamics model of the Nigerian industrial energy system, incorporating six interdependent sub-models covering energy demand dynamics, technology adoption diffusion, investment flow dynamics, regulatory policy implementation, natural gas supply system behaviour, and renewable energy infrastructure development. Model parameterisation draws on primary data from energy audits at thirty-eight industrial facilities, regulatory agency data, and calibration against ten years of historical energy consumption data. Scenario analysis across twelve transition pathway scenarios reveals that a gas-bridge-to-renewables strategy with strong regulatory incentives dominates alternative pathways on combined cost, energy security, and emissions performance criteria. Original contributions include the Nigeria Industrial Energy Transition Simulator and a novel policy effectiveness evaluation methodology for assessing regulatory intervention designs. Keywords: complex systems modelling, energy transition, industrial decarbonisation, system dynamics, Nigeria