Conflict Ecology and the Consequences of Armed Conflict for Forest Ecosystems and Wildlife in the Lake Chad Basin

Armed conflict creates complex and often counterintuitive consequences for forest ecosystems and wildlife in affected landscapes, including both direct destruction and inadvertent protection through displacement of human populations and reduction of extractive pressure. The Lake Chad basin, spanning northeastern Nigeria and adjacent countries, has experienced more than a decade of armed conflict with profound but poorly documented ecological consequences. This study develops and applies a conflict ecology analytical framework to assess the impacts of armed conflict on forest cover, wildlife populations, and conservation governance in the Lake Chad basin region of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States. Remote sensing analysis using Landsat time series quantified forest cover change before, during, and following peak conflict periods from 2010 to 2023. Wildlife presence-absence data from ranger records, community interviews, and camera trap networks were used to model temporal changes in occupancy for twelve focal species. Conservation governance disruption was assessed through key informant interviews with former park staff, community leaders, and humanitarian agency personnel. Results reveal spatially heterogeneous conflict effects: forest cover increased in conflict-affected zones near active insecurity as agricultural activity ceased, while peripheral areas accessible to displaced populations experienced accelerated deforestation. Wildlife occupancy declined for large-bodied species in conflict core zones, particularly elephant, lion, and hippopotamus, while medium-sized prey species showed occupancy increases consistent with reduced hunting. Post-conflict recolonisation by both humans and some wildlife species followed predictable spatial patterns. The study proposes a conflict-sensitive conservation recovery protocol for the Lake Chad basin. Keywords: conflict ecology, armed conflict, Lake Chad basin, forest cover, wildlife conservation