Critical Analysis of Food Trade Policy and Its Implications for Food Security and Dietary Quality in Nigeria: A Political Economy of Nutrition Perspective

Nigeria's food trade policy, shaped by tariff structures, import bans, currency policy, and regional trade agreements, has profound but underanalysed implications for household food access, affordability, and dietary quality. From a political economy of nutrition perspective, trade policy reflects power relations between domestic agribusiness interests, international trade partners, and nutrition governance actors that are rarely made explicit in academic literature. This study conducted a critical analysis of Nigerian food trade policy and its implications for food security and dietary quality using a political economy of nutrition analytical framework. The research combined historical policy analysis of food trade regulations from 2010 to 2024, econometric analysis of household consumption survey data from the 2019 National Living Standards Survey and 2021 DHS, and network analysis of food policy stakeholder influence relationships documented through 40 elite key informant interviews. Policy analysis employed critical discourse analysis methods. Econometric models used instrumental variable approaches to address endogeneity of trade policy exposure. Results showed that import restriction policies on rice and wheat significantly increased domestic staple prices, disproportionately affecting dietary quality of the lowest income quintile. Nutrient diversity declined in urban households following key policy changes. Dominant interests of domestic grain processing and poultry industries were found to significantly shape trade policy decisions, often at the expense of consumer welfare. The study advances political economy of nutrition as a theoretical framework applied to the African trade context. Keywords: food trade policy, food security, dietary quality, political economy of nutrition, Nigeria