Decentralisation, Local State Capacity, and Development Outcomes in Rural Nigeria: A Multi-Level Analysis

This dissertation constructs and tests an original multi-level theoretical framework linking decentralisation, local state capacity, and development outcomes in rural Nigeria, drawing on longitudinal evidence from local government areas across all six geopolitical zones. The literature on decentralisation has produced conflicting findings on its development effects, and this dissertation argues that this inconsistency results from insufficient attention to how local state capacity mediates the decentralisation-development relationship. A three-tier analytical design is employed: a national-level panel analysis of local government development performance data from 2015 to 2023; a comparative case study of 24 purposively selected local government areas stratified by decentralisation levels and capacity scores; and a household survey of 1,200 rural residents assessing perceived development service quality. The analytical tools include hierarchical linear modelling, synthetic difference-in-differences estimation, and cross-case structured-focused comparison. The dissertation builds on Falleti's Sequential Theory of Decentralisation and Migdal's State-in-Society Framework to propose an original Local State Capacity Mediation Model (LSCMM). Findings establish that decentralisation enhances development outcomes only above a minimum local state capacity threshold, below which increased devolution worsens outcomes by overloading under-resourced local institutions. The 40 percent of Nigerian local government areas that fall below this threshold experience a decentralisation-development paradox. Original contributions include the LSCMM theoretical model, the local state capacity composite index, and the threshold identification methodology. Keywords: decentralisation, local state capacity, development outcomes, rural Nigeria, multi-level analysis.