Density Estimation and Habitat Modelling for the African Elephant (Loxodonta africana) in Kainji Lake National Park, Niger State

This study estimates the density and models the habitat preferences of African elephants Loxodonta africana in Kainji Lake National Park (KLNP), Niger State, located in Nigeria's North Central geopolitical zone. KLNP hosts one of only two significant elephant populations remaining in Nigeria, yet the last systematic census is over a decade old, and current population status and habitat use patterns needed for management are unknown. Systematic aerial and ground transect surveys were conducted across the park using distance sampling methodology. Dung counts and direct sightings were used as detection units, with g(0) estimated from known detection probability of fresh dung. GPS tracking collars were fitted to three adult females to characterise movement patterns and habitat selection. Habitat modelling used MaxEnt with 12 environmental predictor layers including vegetation type, water source proximity, slope, and disturbance indices. Population density was estimated at 0.31 elephants per km2, translating to a total park population of 310 to 380 individuals, representing a decline from previous estimates. MaxEnt modelling identified riverine gallery forest and savanna woodland within 2 km of permanent water as the highest suitability habitat, covering only 34 percent of the park's surface area. Telemetry data revealed regular dry-season movements outside the park boundaries into farmland, creating human-elephant conflict risk. The study provides a current population baseline and habitat management recommendations including water point development and corridor identification for KLNP management. Keywords: elephant density, habitat modelling, Kainji Lake National Park, MaxEnt, Niger State.