Descriptive Analysis of Unemployment Trends Among Graduates in South West Nigeria

Graduate unemployment in South West Nigeria has become a major socioeconomic challenge, and data-driven analysis of its trends and characteristics can guide more effective policy responses. This study conducted a descriptive analysis of graduate unemployment data from the 2018 to 2022 Nigeria Labour Force Survey and supplementary graduate tracer study data collected from 840 graduates across Lagos, Ogun, and Osun States, South West Nigeria. Descriptive statistics, cohort analysis, and chi-square association tests were applied. Results revealed that unemployment among graduates persisted for an average of 19.3 months post-graduation. Social Sciences and Humanities graduates experienced the longest unemployment durations at a mean of 23.1 months, while Engineering and Technology graduates averaged 14.7 months. Graduates who participated in entrepreneurship training during their degree programmes showed 38 percent higher probability of employment within 12 months. NYSC participation had a modest positive effect on employment, particularly in public sector placement. Gender analysis revealed that female graduates in Lagos State had 14 percent lower probability of formal employment than male counterparts after controlling for field of study. Employer survey data showed that 72 percent of surveyed firms rated graduate work-readiness skills as inadequate. Recommendations include integrating practical skills training and internship mandates into university curricula, designing sector-specific graduate employment databases, and establishing a state-level graduate employment observatory in the South West zone to track trends over time.

Keywords: graduate unemployment, South West Nigeria, labour force survey, employment analytics, cohort analysis