Determinants of Agricultural Commercialisation Among Smallholder Maize Farmers in Kaduna State: An Empirical Analysis

Agricultural commercialisation is increasingly recognised as a pathway through which smallholder farmers can achieve income growth and exit poverty cycles in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite policy emphasis on market orientation, the structural and behavioural determinants of commercialisation among maize farmers in Kaduna State remain empirically underexplored. This study investigated the determinants of agricultural commercialisation among smallholder maize farmers in Kaduna State using primary data from 240 farming households selected through a multistage random sampling procedure. The commercialisation index was calculated as the ratio of value of maize sales to total value of production. A Tobit regression model was applied to account for censoring in the commercialisation variable. Results indicated that farm size, access to credit, road proximity, household head education, and membership in producer organisations were positive and statistically significant determinants of commercialisation. Gender of household head, land fragmentation, and distance to input markets exerted significant negative effects. The mean commercialisation index of 0.38 reflected predominantly subsistence-oriented production behaviour, suggesting significant potential for market deepening. The study fills an important empirical gap regarding commercialisation drivers in the semi-arid north, with implications for market development policy and extension programming. Investments in rural road infrastructure, credit access, and farmer organisation are recommended to accelerate maize market integration in Kaduna State. Keywords: agricultural commercialisation, maize, Tobit regression, Kaduna State, market orientation.