Developing a Poverty Targeting Methodology for Social Protection Programmes in North West Nigeria

Effective social protection targeting requires robust methodologies that accurately identify the poorest households, and developing a professional targeting methodology adapted to North West Nigeria's demographic and data contexts addresses a major programme design challenge. This study developed a poverty targeting methodology for social protection programmes in Kano, Sokoto, and Zamfara States, North West Nigeria. A professional methodology development approach was applied, incorporating assessment of current National Social Register targeting practices, structured consultations with 20 state social protection officials and 10 poverty measurement specialists, and benchmarking against targeting methods used in Kenya, Ethiopia, and comparable Nigerian state programmes. Assessment confirmed that the proxy means test approach used in existing programmes suffered from 28 percent exclusion error in the assessed states, primarily due to outdated household data and absence of conflict-affected displacement coverage. The methodology developed combines a geographic poverty profiling layer with community-based verification, using satellite imagery, census projections, and community scorecards. Differentiated procedures for urban, rural, and displacement-affected populations are specified. Expert review by nine social protection economists confirmed the methodology's targeting accuracy improvement and operational feasibility. Recommendations include NSIO adopting the revised methodology for the North West zone, piloting the revised approach in 10 LGAs before full rollout, and establishing a dedicated targeting review committee for each participating state.

Keywords: poverty targeting, social protection, North West Nigeria, proxy means test, inclusion error