Developing a Remote Sensing-Based Framework for Monitoring Nigeria’s REDD-Plus Reference Emission Levels

Nigeria's participation in REDD-plus requires methodologically credible national forest monitoring systems for verifying emission reductions against reference emission levels. This study develops a remote sensing-based framework for monitoring Nigeria's REDD-plus reference emission levels with specific attention to methodological transparency and uncertainty quantification required for international verification. The framework integrates national forest inventory plot data, airborne LiDAR biomass reference data, and multi-decadal Landsat time series to produce wall-to-wall forest carbon stock change maps at 5-year intervals from 2004 to 2024. An activity data and emission factor framework consistent with IPCC Good Practice Guidance Tier 3 methods is implemented. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis quantifies combined activity data and emission factor uncertainties in national emission estimates. The framework's consistency with UNFCCC technical assessment requirements is evaluated against published technical assessment reports from comparable developing countries. Results estimate net forest carbon emissions of approximately 47 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year for the 2014 to 2024 reference period, with uncertainty bounds of plus or minus 19 percent at 95 percent confidence. Keywords: REDD-plus, reference emission levels, forest monitoring, Nigeria, uncertainty quantification