Developing an Original Agroecological Transition Framework for Nigerian Smallholder Farming Systems Facing Simultaneous Climate and Market Stressors

Nigerian smallholder farming systems are simultaneously confronted with climate change-related production stressors and rapid market integration pressures that create conflicting adaptation incentives, and developing an original theoretical framework for understanding and supporting their agroecological transition navigates an important but undertheorised intersection of crop science, environmental sociology, and agricultural economics. This study developed an original agroecological transition framework for Nigerian smallholder farming systems, with empirical grounding in case studies of three farming system types: intensifying peri-urban vegetable systems (Ogun State), diversifying dry-season irrigation systems (Sokoto State), and stress-affected rain-fed cereal systems (Borno State). A theory-building methodology combining farming systems analysis, sustainability transition theory, and multi-actor stakeholder research was employed. In-depth farming system characterisation involved 120 farm household surveys, 30 key informant interviews, and participatory scenario analysis workshops with 90 farmers across the three systems. Sustainability transition theory (Multi-Level Perspective) was applied to characterise the socio-technical contexts of each farming system type and identify innovation niches and regime-level barriers to agroecological transition. The original Nigerian Smallholder Agroecological Transition Framework (NSATF) proposes that transition success is determined by the alignment of three factors: ecological transition capacity (soil health improvement potential), economic transition feasibility (transition cost recovery within farmer risk tolerance), and institutional transition support (extension, credit, market). Expert review by 22 agroecological and farming systems specialists confirmed the framework's original theoretical contribution.

Keywords: agroecological transition, smallholder farming, climate change, sustainability transition, Nigeria