Developing an Original Geospatial Data Science Framework for Equity-Informed Infrastructure Investment in Nigeria

Infrastructure investment decisions in Nigeria often lack geospatial equity analysis, resulting in resource allocation that deepens spatial inequalities rather than reducing them. Developing an original geospatial data science framework that embeds equity criteria into infrastructure investment planning represents a significant contribution to both spatial analytics and development policy theory. This study developed an original Geospatial Equity-Informed Infrastructure Investment Framework (GEIIF) for Nigeria. A theory-building and empirical validation methodology was employed: systematic review of spatial equity and infrastructure analytics literature (61 publications from 2018 to 2024), empirical analysis of infrastructure investment allocation versus need across 774 LGAs in Nigeria using geospatial datasets for road quality, electrification, water access, healthcare facility availability, and school density, and expert validation. The empirical analysis showed that infrastructure investment concentration (measured by asset density and recency of investment) was negatively correlated with need-based deprivation scores (r = -0.63, p < 0.001), confirming a systemic infrastructure equity deficit. The GEIIF proposes four analytical layers: need mapping (composite deprivation index by infrastructure type), access gap quantification (modelled population distance to infrastructure), investment priority scoring incorporating equity weights, and spillover impact modelling estimating inter-LGA economic benefits of equity-motivated investments. A worked application to road investment prioritisation across the North East zone demonstrated 34 percent greater poverty reduction potential from equity-weighted versus cost-minimisation investment plans. Expert review confirmed the framework's original theoretical and methodological contribution to infrastructure planning equity. Keywords: geospatial equity, infrastructure investment, Nigeria, spatial analytics, equity-weighted planning