Developing an Original Theoretical Framework for the Circular Economy Transition of Nigeria’s Construction Industry

The construction industry is globally the largest consumer of raw materials and producer of solid waste, and Nigeria's construction sector faces urgent pressure to transition toward circular economy principles, yet no theoretical framework for this transition calibrated to the Nigerian industrial, regulatory, and economic context exists. This study develops an original Theoretical Framework for Circular Economy Transition in Nigeria's Construction Industry (TCETNI), integrating circular economy theory, institutional transition theory, value chain analysis, and innovation systems theory into a coherent model of sector-level transformation. The framework is constructed through a multi-method research programme: systematic literature review (200 sources), expert Delphi study (three rounds, 42 panellists across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones), value chain mapping of the Nigerian construction material cycle (covering 18 material categories from extraction to end-of-life), and structural equation modelling using survey data from 280 construction industry actors. The TCETNI identifies six transition levers (regulatory drivers, market incentives, technological enablers, knowledge systems, professional norms, and community engagement) and specifies their interaction mechanisms and relative importance for different circular economy practices (design for disassembly, material reuse, recycling, and industrial symbiosis). Structural equation modelling confirms the framework's empirical validity (CFI = 0.93, RMSEA = 0.051). Original contributions include the TCETNI theoretical model, an evidence-based Nigerian Construction Circular Economy Maturity Index, and an original policy road map for Nigeria's Federal Ministry of Environment and the construction industry professional bodies.

Keywords: circular economy, construction industry, Nigeria, transition framework, material reuse