Development of a Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Equipment Replacement in the Nigerian Textile Industry

This research develops a multi-criteria decision support system for equipment replacement decisions in the Nigerian textile industry, addressing the analytical gap that leads many textile manufacturers to make replacement decisions based on intuitive judgement rather than structured analysis. The Nigerian textile industry, concentrated in states including Kano, Kaduna, and Lagos, is characterised by aging equipment fleets, high maintenance costs, and declining competitiveness, making the timing and basis of equipment replacement decisions critically important to industry survival. The decision support system is developed using a hybrid multi-criteria framework integrating the Analytic Network Process for criteria weighting and a Monte Carlo simulation model for capturing uncertainty in key financial parameters. Criteria encompassed in the framework include remaining useful life, maintenance cost trajectory, production capacity shortfall, energy efficiency gap, spare parts availability, and technology obsolescence rate. The system is validated through application to replacement decisions at three textile companies in Kano State, comparing system recommendations against decisions actually made and their subsequent performance outcomes. Expert validation interviews with fifteen experienced textile industry engineers confirm the framework's comprehensiveness and usability. The decision support system is delivered as a Microsoft Excel-based tool with a user-friendly interface to support practical adoption without specialist software requirements. Keywords: equipment replacement, decision support system, Analytic Network Process, textile industry, Kano State