Development of an Original Agent-Based Model of Vessel Traffic and Pollution Dispersion in the Lagos Coastal Zone

The coupling of vessel traffic dynamics with marine pollution dispersion processes in the Lagos coastal zone creates a complex spatio-temporal system whose integrated behaviour cannot be adequately studied using conventional analytical or statistical approaches. This study develops an original agent-based model integrating vessel traffic simulation with real-time pollution dispersion modelling in the Lagos coastal zone, from the outer approaches to the port through the Lagos Lagoon system. The research employs a computational social science and environmental engineering methodology, developing the agent-based model using the NetLogo simulation platform. Vessel agents are parameterised using automatic identification system data from the Lagos Vessel Traffic Service spanning 2021 to 2023, enabling realistic representation of vessel type distributions, traffic patterns, speed profiles, and spatially varying pollution emission characteristics. Pollution dispersion is modelled using a particle-tracking algorithm coupled to a hydrodynamic model of the Lagos coastal circulation. The integrated model is validated against observed vessel traffic statistics and independently measured hydrocarbon concentration data from coastal water quality monitoring stations. The study uses the validated model to conduct scenario analyses examining the cumulative pollution loading implications of projected vessel traffic growth and the effectiveness of alternative vessel routing and speed reduction policies in reducing coastal hydrocarbon deposition. The original contribution to the literature is the first agent-based model integrating realistic vessel traffic with pollution dispersion for a West African coastal zone. Keywords: agent-based model, vessel traffic, pollution dispersion, Lagos coastal zone, simulation