Development of an Original Predictive Model for Atmospheric Dust Transport and Deposition Affecting Solar Energy Systems in the Sahel Region of Nigeria

Mineral dust aerosol transport from the Sahara and Sahel is the dominant atmospheric particulate process over northern Nigeria, with profound implications for solar irradiance attenuation, photovoltaic panel soiling, and regional climate feedbacks. Existing global dust transport models perform poorly at the sub-regional scale relevant to Nigerian solar energy infrastructure planning due to inadequate representation of local emission sources, land use change effects, and the complex orographic influence of the Jos Plateau. This research develops an original predictive model for atmospheric dust transport and deposition in the Sahel region of Nigeria at 5 km spatial resolution through the adaptation and validation of the FLEXPART-CESM Lagrangian particle transport model with a new locally calibrated dust emission parameterization. An original dust emission scheme incorporating threshold wind velocity dependence on soil texture, moisture, and crust formation is derived from measured emission flux data collected at Katsina State field sites using a portable saltation sensor and a dust trap array. The transport model is driven by WRF mesoscale meteorological model output at 5 km resolution configured with land surface parameters from the NASA LPDAAC dataset updated with recent land degradation mapping. Comprehensive validation against daily PM10 measurements from 12 monitoring stations, MODIS aerosol optical depth retrievals, and passive dust deposition gauge measurements at 30 sites across northern Nigeria achieves a model skill score of 0.74 for daily deposition prediction. Original analytical expressions for soiling rate as a function of transport-predicted deposition flux and particle size distribution are derived and validated against co-located solar panel soiling measurements. The model provides operational dust deposition forecasts for solar plant maintenance scheduling in northern Nigeria. Keywords: dust transport, atmospheric model, solar energy, Sahel, Nigeria