Developmental Origins of Maths Anxiety: Tracing Longitudinal Pathways from Early Childhood Number Sense to Adolescent Mathematics Outcomes in Lagos State

This study investigates the developmental origins of mathematics anxiety by tracing longitudinal pathways from early childhood number sense to adolescent mathematics anxiety and achievement outcomes in Lagos State, South West Nigeria. Mathematics anxiety emerges as a significant predictor of career outcomes in STEM fields, yet its developmental roots in early numerical processing experiences remain poorly understood in Nigerian educational contexts. The study follows a cohort of 350 children recruited at age 5 from nursery schools in Lagos Mainland and Ikeja Local Government Areas, with follow-up assessments at ages 7, 9, and 14. Number sense, phonological awareness, visuospatial skills, maths anxiety, and mathematics achievement are assessed at each wave using age-appropriate instruments including the Number Sense Screener, the Mathematics Anxiety Scale for Children, and national examination scores. Latent growth curve modelling, cross-lagged panel models, and Bayesian path analysis constitute the analytic framework. Results reveal that early number sense deficits at age 5 predict the trajectory of mathematics anxiety development through middle childhood, with the strongest cross-lagged effects observed between ages 7 and 9. Girls with early number sense vulnerabilities show accelerated anxiety trajectories from age 9 onward, suggesting a gendered developmental divergence. Parental mathematics attitudes mediate approximately 30 percent of the number sense-to-anxiety pathway. This study constitutes the first Nigerian longitudinal investigation of the developmental origins of maths anxiety and provides a strong empirical basis for early screening and preventive intervention in Lagos primary schools. Keywords: mathematics anxiety, number sense, longitudinal, early childhood, Lagos State.