Dynamic Urban Resilience: Theorising Adaptive Capacity in Flood-Prone Nigerian Cities

Urban resilience theory has been critiqued for its limited operationalization in contexts of chronic vulnerability and its inadequate engagement with political economy dimensions of adaptive capacity. This study develops a dynamic urban resilience theory for flood-prone Nigerian cities, making an original contribution to resilience theorization by integrating structural vulnerability analysis, institutional learning theory, and political ecology into a dynamic adaptive capacity framework. The empirical program draws on longitudinal multi-city research in Lokoja, Yenagoa, and Warri, each selected as exemplars of distinct flood vulnerability typologies. Data collection over four years includes 90 semi-structured interviews with planners, engineers, community leaders, and affected residents, participatory flood mapping exercises, analysis of institutional documents before and after major flood events, and spatial monitoring of development patterns in flood-risk zones using satellite imagery. The study critically evaluates existing resilience frameworks including Rockefeller 100 Resilient Cities and the Sendai Framework's urban resilience indicators against empirical evidence from Nigerian cities, identifying theoretical inadequacies in their treatment of political barriers to adaptive action. Original theoretical contributions include a Dynamic Urban Resilience Model that foregrounds institutional learning cycles, political economy constraints, and community agency as co-determinants of adaptive capacity. The framework has direct application to planning practice, informing the design of resilience-building planning processes that are contextually grounded in Nigerian conditions. Keywords: Urban resilience, Adaptive capacity, Flood vulnerability, Planning theory, Nigeria.