Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth in Nigeria: Trends and Determinants

This study provides a rigorous empirical analysis of agricultural total factor productivity growth in Nigeria, estimating TFP trends and identifying the key determinants of productivity change over the period 2000 to 2023. Total factor productivity growth, which measures output growth beyond what can be explained by input quantity increases, is the primary driver of long-run agricultural competitiveness and sustainable income growth. Understanding Nigeria's agricultural TFP trajectory and its determinants is essential for evidence-based agricultural investment and policy design. This study uses a non-parametric Malmquist productivity index computed from state-level panel data on agricultural output, land, labour, capital, and fertiliser inputs sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Food and Agriculture Organisation. TFP decomposition separates efficiency change from technological change components. Panel regression identifies technological change, human capital, infrastructure, and institutional quality as TFP determinants. Findings reveal that Nigerian agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent over the study period, driven primarily by efficiency change rather than technological progress. Southern states demonstrate consistently higher TFP levels than northern counterparts. Public research and extension investment shows a significant positive effect on TFP growth with a five-year lag. The study concludes that agricultural research investment and infrastructure development are the highest-return TFP growth drivers in Nigeria. It recommends increased public agricultural R and D expenditure and extension system modernisation as productivity policy priorities.

Keywords: total factor productivity, agricultural growth, Nigeria, Malmquist index, productivity determinants.