Empirical Analysis of Housing Market Segmentation and Price Determinants in Abuja

Understanding housing market segmentation and the determinants of residential property prices is fundamental to planning policy aimed at expanding housing accessibility and managing speculative activity. This study conducts an empirical analysis of housing market segmentation and price determinants in Abuja, using hedonic price modelling to estimate the contribution of structural, locational, neighbourhood, and planning attributes to residential property prices. A dataset of 1,850 residential property transactions from 2020 to 2024 was assembled from estate agency records and Federal Capital Development Authority transaction databases. Hedonic regression models are estimated for distinct market segments identified through spatial cluster analysis of price data, including the high-income core district segment, middle-income satellite town segment, and emerging peri-urban informal segment. Key explanatory variables include floor area, construction quality, proximity to CBD, road accessibility, school proximity, planning designation, and distance to markets. Findings are expected to identify significant price premiums for proximity to major road corridors, high-quality school catchments, and formally planned neighborhoods, while documenting discounts for flood exposure, proximity to unfinished infrastructure, and informal settlement adjacency. The study addresses a research gap in the Nigerian planning literature on empirically-grounded price determinant analysis for planned capital cities. Recommendations address planning authority use of price determinant evidence in infrastructure investment prioritization, anti-speculative land taxation design, and affordable housing subsidy targeting in areas with the strongest structural price constraints. Keywords: Housing market, Price determinants, Hedonic modelling, Abuja, Market segmentation.