Empirical Analysis of Recidivism Rates and Predictors Among Ex-Offenders in Nigerian Urban Centres

Understanding recidivism rates and their predictors is foundational to correctional policy reform, and empirical characterisation of post-release reoffending patterns among Nigerian ex-offenders fills an important gap in domestic criminological evidence. This study empirically analysed recidivism rates and predictors among ex-offenders within 24 months of release in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, representing South West, North Central, and South South zones. A prospective cohort design was employed, following 240 male ex-offenders released from correctional facilities in the three cities and assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months post-release through structured interviews and, where available, official re-arrest records. Predictors assessed included age at release, offence type, sentence length, employment status post-release, social support, substance use history, and rehabilitation programme participation. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were applied. Cumulative 24-month recidivism rate was 58.7 percent (re-arrest or self-reported reoffending). Young age at release (HR 2.8, p < 0.001), unemployment at 6 months (HR 3.4, p < 0.001), substance use history (HR 2.1, p < 0.001), and absence of family support (HR 2.3, p < 0.001) were the strongest recidivism predictors. Rehabilitation programme participation was a significant protective factor (HR 0.52, p < 0.001). The study provides the first prospective recidivism cohort data for Nigerian urban ex-offenders and recommends targeted post-release employment and housing support as evidence-based recidivism reduction investments. Keywords: recidivism, ex-offenders, correctional rehabilitation, Nigeria, prospective cohort