Empirical Analysis of Spatial Inequality in Broadband Internet Access Across Nigerian States

Spatial inequality in broadband internet access perpetuates digital divides that undermine Nigeria's digital economy aspirations, and empirically quantifying and modelling this inequality across states provides evidence for infrastructure investment targeting. This study empirically analysed spatial patterns of broadband internet access inequality across Nigeria's 36 states and FCT using NCC quarterly network quality data, NBS household survey data, and geospatial coverage data from 2019 to 2022. Inequality was measured using the Theil Index decomposed between-zone and within-zone components. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran's I and LISA clustering was applied. Regression modelling identified state-level predictors of broadband penetration. The Theil Index showed broadband access inequality was predominantly driven by between-zone differences (74.6 percent of total inequality) rather than within-zone variation. LISA analysis identified a significant high-access cluster in Lagos-Ogun-Oyo states and a persistent low-access cluster in Yobe, Gombe, and Borno States. State GDP per capita, urbanisation rate, and number of licensed internet service providers were the strongest positive predictors of broadband penetration. Between 2019 and 2022, within-zone inequality decreased marginally while between-zone inequality remained static, suggesting that connectivity growth was disproportionately concentrated in already-connected states. The study fills an empirical gap in Nigerian broadband inequality measurement and recommends NCC adopt spatially differentiated licensing obligations, USPF target investment in identified low-access clusters, and publish annual state-level broadband inequality indices.

Keywords: broadband inequality, spatial analysis, Nigeria, digital divide, Theil Index