Empirical Analysis of the Predictors of Early Childhood Education Programme Quality Across Nigeria’s Six Geopolitical Zones

Understanding what structural and process factors most strongly predict ECD programme quality across Nigeria's diverse regional contexts is essential for targeted quality improvement investment, and a multi-zone empirical study fills a major gap in the national ECD quality evidence base. This study empirically analysed the predictors of ECD programme quality across all six geopolitical zones using a nationally representative sample of 180 ECD centres (30 per zone). ECD programme quality was assessed using the Early Childhood Environment Rating Scale-Revised as the outcome measure. Structural predictors assessed included teacher qualification level, class size, centre type (government or private), physical space adequacy, and urban or rural location. Process predictors assessed included director's ECD experience, programme planning practice, family engagement activity, and professional development access. Multilevel regression with centre-level and zone-level predictors was applied. Teacher qualification level was the strongest structural predictor of quality (beta = 0.47, p < 0.001) nationally, with director's ECD experience the strongest process predictor (beta = 0.38, p < 0.001). Government centre type was negatively associated with quality after controlling for other variables. Urban-rural differences in quality predictors varied by zone. Zone-level regulatory intensity moderated the teacher qualification-quality relationship. The study provides the first nationally comprehensive empirical predictor analysis and recommends teacher qualification upgrading as the priority quality investment across all zones, particularly in North East and North West where qualification rates and quality scores were lowest. Keywords: ECD programme quality, ECERS-R, quality predictors, multi-zone Nigeria, early childhood