Empirical Investigation of the Factors Influencing Grounding Incidents in Nigerian Waters: A Logistic Regression Approach

Vessel grounding incidents impose significant economic losses, environmental damage, and safety risks on Nigerian maritime commerce, yet a systematic empirical analysis of their contributory factors within the Nigerian context has not been published. This study empirically investigates the factors associated with vessel grounding incidents in Nigerian waters using a logistic regression analytical framework. Secondary data on grounding incidents were obtained from the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency incident database and the Nigerian Inland Waterways Authority accident records, covering the period 2015 to 2023 and comprising one hundred and forty-seven recorded grounding events. Incident records were coded for vessel type, route, season, cargo loading condition, time of day, navigation aid status, and crew certification level. A binomial logistic regression model was estimated with grounding occurrence as the outcome variable. Results identify night-time operations, absence of functional navigational aids on the route, dry season low water conditions, and operation of vessels without formally certified navigation officers as significant positive predictors of grounding incidents. Vessel type and cargo loading condition also contribute significantly to the model. The study provides the first statistically derived grounding risk model specific to Nigerian waterways, contributing an evidence base for targeted risk reduction interventions. Recommendations include mandatory AIS carriage and night-navigation restrictions for uncertified operators in high-risk waterway segments. Keywords: vessel grounding, logistic regression, Nigerian waters, navigational aids, incident analysis