Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria’s Savanna Zone

Climate change is modifying temperature and rainfall patterns in Nigeria's savanna zone with direct consequences for agricultural productivity, and empirically measuring these impacts provides evidence for climate adaptation investment in the North. This study empirically investigated the impact of climate change indicators on agricultural productivity in the Guinea and Sudan savanna zones of North Central and North West Nigeria, using a panel dataset covering 144 LGAs across Kano, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Niger, and Plateau States from 2001 to 2020. Climate variables (temperature, rainfall, length of growing season) were from NIMET satellite and ground station data. Agricultural productivity was measured as output value per hectare from LGA-level agricultural surveys. Fixed-effects panel regression and the Ricardo-Mendelsohn Hedonic approach were applied. Results confirmed that a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature was associated with a 4.7 percent decrease in agricultural output per hectare (p < 0.001). Rainfall variability (coefficient of variation above 0.30) was associated with a 12.4 percent output reduction. However, marginal rainfall increases up to the optimal range showed positive productivity effects, confirming non-linear relationships. The study fills an empirical gap on climate-productivity impacts at the LGA level in northern Nigeria and recommends the Federal Ministry of Agriculture incorporating LGA-level climate risk mapping into agricultural policy, prioritising climate-adaptive seed varieties, and scaling up irrigation investment in drought-prone savanna LGAs. Keywords: climate change, agricultural productivity, Nigeria savanna, panel data, hedonic approach