Empirical Study of Factors Predicting Completion of Treatment Among Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients in Lagos State

Treatment completion for drug-resistant tuberculosis is critical for achieving cure, preventing further resistance amplification, and protecting public health, yet the predictors of completion among patients enrolled in the Lagos DR-TB programme have not been empirically characterised. This study empirically examined predictors of DR-TB treatment completion among patients enrolled at the Lagos State DR-TB treatment centre, Yaba. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using electronic medical records for 280 DR-TB patients enrolled between 2019 and 2022. Treatment outcomes were classified per WHO definitions. Predictor variables extracted included age, sex, HIV co-infection status, prior TB treatment history, baseline smear and culture status, treatment regimen type, sputum conversion timing, ART co-treatment, social support documentation, and adverse drug event records. Cox regression modelling identified predictors of failure to complete treatment. Results showed a treatment completion rate of 64.6 percent; loss to follow-up was 18.6 percent and death accounted for 11.8 percent. HIV co-infection (HR 2.4; p < 0.001), adverse drug reaction history (HR 2.1; p < 0.001), and absence of documented social support (HR 1.9; p < 0.01) were the strongest predictors of non-completion. Monthly smear conversion by month two was the strongest predictor of eventual completion (HR 0.29; p < 0.001). The study provides empirical evidence supporting enhanced psychosocial support, ADR management capacity, and HIV-TB integrated care as treatment completion improvement strategies in Lagos. Keywords: drug-resistant tuberculosis, treatment completion, Lagos State, TB outcomes, South West Nigeria