Empirical Study of the Socioeconomic Determinants of Organised Crime Membership in the South South Zone

Organised crime in the South South zone, encompassing oil theft syndicates, kidnapping networks, and cult-based criminal enterprises, recruits membership from economically marginalised youth, but the specific socioeconomic determinants of organised crime membership have not been empirically characterised for this region. This study empirically examined the socioeconomic determinants of organised crime membership among adults aged 18 to 40 in Rivers, Delta, and Bayelsa States. A case-control design was employed, comparing 120 individuals with documented or self-disclosed organised crime involvement with 120 age, gender, and location-matched community members without involvement. Socioeconomic determinants assessed included education, employment, income, housing, family structure, prior victimisation, and community social capital measures. Conditional logistic regression identified significant determinants. Results showed that prolonged unemployment (OR 6.8, p < 0.001), low household income (OR 4.2, p < 0.001), prior oil industry employment and subsequent redundancy (OR 3.9, p < 0.001), and exposure to organised crime through community peer networks (OR 5.1, p < 0.001) were the strongest independent predictors of organised crime involvement. Community social capital significantly reduced organised crime probability (OR 0.31, p < 0.001). The study fills an empirical gap and provides evidence for investment in economic inclusion as primary organised crime prevention in the South South. Recommendations include oil community youth employment quotas, social capital investment, and community crime prevention grants targeting the highest-risk demographic profiles. Keywords: organised crime, socioeconomic determinants, South South Nigeria, crime membership, case-control study