Energy Transition Pathway Analysis for the Nigerian Electricity Sector to 2050 Using Multi-Scenario Modelling

This study analyses technically and economically feasible energy transition pathways for the Nigerian electricity sector to 2050 using multi-scenario energy system modelling, providing evidence to support Nigeria's commitment under the Paris Agreement and its domestic Energy Transition Plan. Nigeria's electricity sector must simultaneously address the current energy access deficit affecting over 80 million people without electricity, meet growing demand from a rapidly expanding economy and population, and progressively decarbonise generation in line with its nationally determined contributions. An OSeMOSYS energy system optimisation model of the Nigerian electricity sector is developed, incorporating current and projected generation technology costs, resource potential constraints, fuel price trajectories, transmission expansion costs, and demand projections to 2050. Five scenarios are analysed: business as usual, accelerated gas expansion, high renewable, universal access priority, and Paris-aligned net zero. The model minimises total system cost subject to supply-demand balance, emission constraints, and technology deployment rates. Results show that the high renewable scenario achieves the lowest total system cost over the 2030 to 2050 period due to falling solar and battery storage costs, while also delivering the deepest emission reductions. Universal access priority requires the largest near-term investment but yields the highest socioeconomic co-benefits. Grid-scale battery storage becomes cost-optimal in all scenarios beyond 2035 as variable renewable penetration rises above 40 percent. The study provides scenario-differentiated investment roadmaps for the Nigerian power sector. Keywords: energy transition, pathway modelling, OSeMOSYS, Nigeria, decarbonisation.