Environmental Uncertainty, Strategic Agility, and Firm Survival: A Longitudinal Analysis of Nigerian SMEs During Economic Shocks

This study examines the mediating role of strategic agility in the relationship between environmental uncertainty and firm survival among Nigerian SMEs across multiple economic shock periods, providing the first longitudinal causal analysis of agility as a survival mechanism in an African emerging market context. Nigerian SMEs are disproportionately vulnerable to economic shocks including currency devaluation, commodity price volatility, and regulatory disruptions, yet the strategic mechanisms through which agility enables survival remain inadequately theorised and empirically untested with appropriate causal methods. A longitudinal mixed-methods design combines fifteen-year survival analysis data from 350 SMEs across Lagos (South West), Kaduna (North West), and Enugu (South East) with qualitative process analysis of matched surviving and non-surviving firms. Cox proportional hazard modelling is applied to the quantitative survival data, while comparative case analysis identifies the agility development pathways that distinguished survivors from non-survivors across shock episodes. The study operationalises strategic agility through sensing acuity, decision speed, and resource fluidity dimensions, developing and validating an original SME strategic agility scale adapted for the Nigerian context. Findings demonstrate that strategic agility exerts a strong protective effect against survival risk during economic shocks, with sensing acuity and resource fluidity as the most critical dimensions. The study contributes original empirical evidence to strategic agility theory, SME resilience literature, and institutional theory by demonstrating context-specific agility mechanisms. Keywords: environmental uncertainty, strategic agility, firm survival, SMEs, economic shocks Nigeria.